A new study by H2 Gambling Capital reveals that Latvia’s online gambling shadow economy continues to pose a significant fiscal threat, with an estimated €90 million in lost state revenue by 2030. Despite tighter regulations, the illegal segment remains deeply entrenched.

The report projects that gross gambling revenue from unlicensed operators will reach €62 million in 2025 – nearly double earlier forecasts. 

Although the share of illegal operators has declined from 39% in 2019 to 27% in 2025, this reduction falls short of previous expectations, highlighting slower-than-anticipated progress.

Experts point to high taxes, product restrictions, and limited legal offerings as key drivers sustaining demand for unlicensed platforms. 

The market remains highly fragmented, with over 1,000 accessible gambling sites, many operating through mirror domains that complicate enforcement.

Looking ahead, H2GC does not expect a sharp decline in the illegal sector, forecasting it will still account for 22% of the market by 2030. 

Growth in cryptocurrency casinos and “skin betting” platforms – responsible for nearly a quarter of unlicensed web traffic – continues to fuel the shadow economy both in Latvia and globally.

Source

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