State intervention in market processes should be balanced and consider long-term economic and social consequences, according to George Mamulaishvili, the head of the Georgian Gambling Association (GGA). In its analysis, the GGA discusses how Armenia’s flawed regulatory policies are dealing a severe blow to businesses, tax revenues, and social stability.

Since 2022, the authorities have consistently tightened legislation governing the gambling industry. These changes, driven more by politics than economics, have led to a decline in the number of legal operators, job losses, and a significant drop in tax revenues.

In 2025, the situation in Armenia is set to worsen: new restrictions and tax increases may completely devastate the market, forcing businesses either abroad or into the shadows.

Officials making these decisions fail to consider the disruption to business processes, the closure of companies, and the loss of thousands of jobs.

In practice, unjustified bans and excessive taxes only fuel the illegal market, depriving the state of control and tax income. Official justifications about protecting the population and increasing budget revenues may seem convincing at first glance. However, the experience of other countries shows the opposite—when legal businesses are pushed out, illegal operators take over, providing no tax revenue and creating additional risks for players.

The policy of excessive restrictions leads to:

• A decline in tax revenues — the budget loses significant income.
• Rising unemployment — the closure of legal operators results in job losses.
• Growth of the illegal market — the state loses control over the industry.
• Reduction of social programs — fewer charitable initiatives and sponsorships.

If the government wants to protect citizens and increase budget revenues, it must develop the legal market, establish effective oversight mechanisms, and promote responsible gambling.

Key Restrictions of 2022–2023:

• A complete ban on advertising across all channels except specialized platforms.
• Limited access points — operators can only operate in four designated zones.
• Player restrictions — mandatory identification and participation limits.

The official government argument is the fight against gambling addiction, yet no reliable data on the scale of the problem has been presented, while the economic consequences are devastating.

Consequences of the Restrictions:

• Closure of gambling establishments and a drop in tax revenues.
• Mass job losses, especially in the regions.
• Exit of local entrepreneurs who owned gaming halls and terminals.
• Decline in related industries such as advertising, real estate rentals, and services.
• Budget losses: from $85 million in gambling taxes in 2020 to $40 million in 2024.
• Reduced funding for social programs.
• The expected tax hikes in 2025 could drive the remaining legal businesses out of the market, further strengthening the shadow economy.

Growth of the Illegal Sector:

• Unlicensed online casinos and bookmakers operating via VPNs.
• Capital outflow to offshore jurisdictions (Curaçao, Malta, Cyprus).
• Shrinking number of legal gambling establishments — from 455 in 2020 to just 45 in 2024.

The gambling industry is not just about big companies, but also franchises, small halls, lottery outlets, betting points, which created jobs and supported the local economy. This segment has been nearly wiped out, replaced by illegal operators.

One of the biggest criticisms of the government is its refusal to consult with gambling industry representatives. Instead of reasonable regulation, officials impose bans, ignore economic consequences, and contribute to rising unemployment.

New Restrictions in 2025:

• A sharp increase in licensing fees for online bookmakers and casinos.
• A rise in turnover taxes is making operations unprofitable for most operators.
• Additional fees for each service point (both online and offline).
• Stricter financial reserve requirements for companies make it more difficult for even large players to operate.

Expected Outcomes:

• The destruction of an entire industry.
• A surge in illegal platforms without player guarantees.
• A decline in tax revenues, contrary to government expectations.
• Rising unemployment, capital outflow, and an expanding black market.

Alternative Path for Development

If Armenian authorities genuinely want to regulate the gambling industry rather than destroy it—and thereby protect citizens and preserve tax revenues—they must rethink their approach:
 

• Maintain the legal market instead of creating conditions for illegal operators.
• Ensure reasonable regulation rather than imposing blanket bans.
• Implement effective social programs to combat gambling addiction.
• Revise tax policies to support a sustainable business environment.

Only a balanced approach will allow Armenia to sustain a stable economy. Bans cannot eliminate demand—they only deprive the state of control and revenue. A well-regulated legal industry can be beneficial, but only with intelligent governance. If Armenia continues its current policies, the market will entirely shift into the shadows, and budget losses will become irreversible.

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